6.5B - Energy Pathways
Energy pathways, (pipelines, transmission lines, shipping routes, road and rail) are a key aspect of security but can be prone to disruption, especially as conventional fossil fuel sources deplete (Russian gas to Europe)
Energy mismatches are resolved by the creation of energy pathways that allow transfers to take place between producers and consumers. The main fossil fuel pathways are:
- coal: from six main producers (Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, Colombia and USA) to four major markets (EU, India, China and Japan-Korea-Taiwan)
- oil: from producers in the Middle East to four major markets (EU, USA and E and SE Asia); lesser producers are Nigeria and Venezuela
- gas: from major producers in the Middle East and from Russia to markets in Europe; lesser producers are Indonesia, Nigeria and Trinidad
Russian gas to Europe
Energy pathways are a key aspect of energy security but can be prone to disruption, especially as conventional fossil fuels have to be moved over long distances from sources to markets. Russia is currently the second largest producer of gas. Most of its gas exports go to European countries (Germany, Italy, UK, France, Spain). Russian gas is delivered to Europe mainly through five pipelines:
Countries getting 100% of gas from Russia:
Geopolitically significant is that three of those pipelines cross Ukraine, a country from which Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. It now occupies parts of eastern Ukraine. Clearly, Ukraine might be in a position of strength here, it could increase the charges for allowing Russian gas to pass through it. It could even stop the gas flows altogether. This potential threat seems to leave Russia with two options:
Given the history of strained political relations between Russia and Western Europe, it would appear strategically unwise for EU countries to become heavily reliant on Russian gas. Although the UK still obtains most of its gas from Qatar, it has recently substantially increased its imports of Russian gas in order to offset the declining output of gas from its North Sea gas fields.
Countries getting 100% of gas from Russia:
- Finland
- Estonia
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- Bulgaria, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia
Geopolitically significant is that three of those pipelines cross Ukraine, a country from which Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. It now occupies parts of eastern Ukraine. Clearly, Ukraine might be in a position of strength here, it could increase the charges for allowing Russian gas to pass through it. It could even stop the gas flows altogether. This potential threat seems to leave Russia with two options:
- reduce delivery of gas through these threatened pipelines and export more through two northern pipelines that run through Finland and Poland
- annexe the whole of Ukraine
Given the history of strained political relations between Russia and Western Europe, it would appear strategically unwise for EU countries to become heavily reliant on Russian gas. Although the UK still obtains most of its gas from Qatar, it has recently substantially increased its imports of Russian gas in order to offset the declining output of gas from its North Sea gas fields.