6.9A - Uncertainty about the Future
Future emissions, atmospheric concentration levels and climate warming are uncertain owing to natural factors (the role of carbon sinks), human factors (economic growth, population, energy sources) and feedback mechanisms (carbon release from peatlands and permafrost, and tipping points, including forest die back and alterations to the thermahaline circulation.) (F: uncertainty of global projections)
There is much uncertainty over the future, which raises many questions, particularly:
- the level of GHG emissions - will they continue to rise?
- GHG concentration levels in the atmosphere - is there a limited capacity?
- the resilience of other carbon sinks and stores- what are their capacities and could they store more?
- the degree of climate warming - how much warmer?
- feedback mechanisms such as the release of carbon from peatlands and thawing permafrost - what volumes of carbon are likely to be released?
- the rate of population growth - when, if ever, will it level off?
- the nature and rate of economic growth - will it always be so carbon-based?
- the harnessing of alternative energy sources - will fossil fuels be completely replaced?
- the possible passing of tipping points relating to aspects as forest dieback and irreversible alterations to the thermohaline circulation - will disaster be sure to follow?
Any forecasting of global futures should be undertaken with greatest caution, since there is still so much unknown. How should we react to further global warming? There are two different courses of action:
- Adaptation: changing our ways of living in such a manner that we are able to cope with most, if not all, the outcomes of global warming
- living with the problem, not solving it
- Mitigation: reducing or preventing GHG emissions by devising new technologies and adopting low-carbon energies (renewables and recyclables)
- tackling the root cause of the problem