7.3B - Strengths and Weaknesses
Each has evolving strengths and weaknesses (economic, military, political, cultural, demographic, and environmental) that might inhibit or advance their economic and geopolitical role in the future.
China
Strengths
- 2nd largest GDP (2016)
- Powerful manufacturing economy
- Growing military power and technology
- Ageing population
- Unwilling to engage with global problems
- Environmental problems
India
7th largest GDP
Strengths
- Youthful population
- demographic dividend - will become a large working-age population in the future
- Global leader in IT technology
- Widespread poverty
- Poor energy and transport infrastructure
- Lack of water resources
Brazil
9th largest GDP
Strengths
- Huge natural resources and farming potential
- Modern economic structure
- Economy has boom and bust cycles
- Limited military strength
Russia
12th largest GDP
Strengths
- Very powerful, nuclear armed military
- Large oil and gas reserves
- Difficult relations with the rest of the world
- Ageing population
Japan
Strengths:
- 3rd largest GDP
- Technologically advanced economy and global TNCs
- Culturally influential via technology, e.g. gaming
- Ageing, declining population
- Very slow economic growth since 1990
Mexico
15th largest GDP
Strengths
- Advanced economy, part of NAFTA
- Poor reputation for crime and corruption
Nigeria
26th largest GDP
Strengths
- Untapped natural resources
- Vast population and growth potential
- Deep seated poverty
- Internal conflict
Trends:
- Countries with ageing, or even declining populations (Russia, Japan, some EU countries and even China) face major problems in the future in paying for increasingly costly healthcare at the same time as their workforce shrinks
- Shortages of physical resources could derail the ambitions of some countries (India) whereas growing pollution could stall the growth of others (China)
- Countries with modern infrastructure, balanced economic sectors and good energy supplies (China, Brazil, Mexico) will do better than ones yet to develop these (India, Indonesia, Nigeria).
To be a true superpower, any emerging power will need to engage with the rest of the world and become a leader on issues such as global security, the fight against terrorism, response to disasters and environmental issues. (Which is what China has failed to do so far.)