7.6A - Resource Demands

Superpower resource demands (food, fossil fuels and minerals) can cause environmental degradation and their carbon emissions contribute disproportionately to global warming. 

Global environmental governance is disproportionately influenced by superpowers. This is most obvious when it comes to global warming. 

Global carbon dioxide emissions in 2015:
  1. 29% China
  2. 14% USA
  3. 10% EU
  4. 7% India
  5. 5% Russia
  6. 35% Rest of the world

Any attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will fail until big emitters agree, because they account for such a large percentage of global emissions. 
  • The USA and China have been reluctant to set emissions reduction targets, whereas the EU has often led in this regard.
  • EU and US emissions are static or falling (because of greater efficiency and some green policies) but in China emissions are still rising

Key questions for the next 20 years:
  • What will the food, water, energy, mineral and other resource demands of emerging India, Bracil and China be as those countries become wealthier?
  • Can the world's resource base provide for those emerging powers, if people attain a similar level of wealth to the EU and USA today?

Energy demand is a useful example. Projections to 2040 estimate a 40-50% increase compared with 2010. Almost all of this will come from emerging and developing countries, mostly India and China. Much of the growth is likely to be in the form of fossil fuel coal, gas and oil - meaning rising carbon dioxide emissions.
  • In India, demand for food and water, as that country reduces poverty, look unsustainable by 2030 as even today India struggles with adequate water supply.
  • In China, demands for card, bigger houses and consumer goods will suck in global energy and mineral resources and could lead to rising resource prices and, potentially, shortages. 

Continued economic development in emerging powers is also likely to lead to local environmental degradation. This will translate into health problems, especially in densely populated cities. 

It is important to recognise that just as attitudes to issues such as trade and globalisation differ between countries, so do attitudes to the environment. The EU has shown itself willing to act to reduce the global warming threat, but this is less true of the USA and even less so of the emerging powers (China, Russia), which tend to prioritise economic development over environmental protection.