7.9C - Global Future Power Balance
The future balance of global power in 2030 and 2050 is uncertain and there are a range of possible outcomes (continued USA dominance, bi-polar and multi-polar structures) (F: uncertainty over future power structures.)
Future outcomes cannot be known, but estimates are made based on extrapolating past and current trends, especially total GDP levels and populations.
Three possible scenarios:
- Uni-polar - the USA remains the single, dominant global hegemon
- Bi-polar - China draws level with the USA
- Multi-polar (regional mosaic) - the USA and EU decline relative to increasingly powerful bricks
By 2030:
- A similar world to today, but the Chinese economy is likely to be similar in size to that of the USA
- Per capita incomes in China will be lower than the USA, and China will still be in the process of becoming a fully developed country
- China is unlikely to have become a global political leader by 2030
By 2050:
- Potentially a very different world, with China and India both powerful economically and militarily (and potential rivals)
- The USA could have similar levels of power and influence to India and China
There are many unknown quantities that increase uncertainty over future superpower structures:
- Post-Brexit, and faced with a sluggish economy and huge debts, what is the future of the EU? It may stagnate as the Japanese economy has done since the mid-1990s, or renew itself and grow.
- Russia, with its oil and gas reserves and huge military arsenal (including nuclear weapons), will remain important, but is an unlikely global leader
- The EU, Russia and even China all face the prospects of rapidly ageing populations that may diminish their status.