8.12C - The Consequences of Inaction
Lack of action also has global consequences which may impact negatively on progress in environmental, political and social development (human well-being and human rights)
It is possible to argue that military intervention can be positive, despite the risks. In a 2007 book, Professor Paul Collier (Director of Oxford's Centre for the Study of African Economics) argued that the cost of a nation becoming a 'failed state' was $30 billion and recovery back to a 'normal' state, took 59 years on average. In other words, the long-term costs to human well-being and human rights are probably worse than the short term costs of intervening.
The costs of the Syrian Civil War that began in 2011 have been huge:
- Between 350,000 and 500,000 deaths up to 2018
- 7.6 million people internally displaced within Syria
- 5.1 million international refugees
- A refugee crisis, which has caused internal political division within the EU
- The rise of Islamic State within Syria and beyond
- Tensions between Russia, Turkey, the EU and USA in terms of how to respond
- The use of chemical weapons by President Assad's forces
- Widespread destruction of ancient, globally significant heritage sites such as Aleppo and Palmyra
- Environmental pollution caused by destroyed water and sewage systems, and chemical contamination from weapons, destroyed factories, and military equipment.
While the West has intervened in terms of air and missile strikes against ISIS, and Turkey and Russia have also been involved militarily (pro-Assad), there has not been a 'boots on the ground' intervention by the West as there was in Iraq or Afghanistan. Could this have shortened the civil war?
The long-term impact on Syrians is considerable:
- By 2018, the Syrian economy was about 40% of its size in 2010
- Unemployment has risen to over 50%, whereas GDP per capita has collapsed by 50%
- HDI has fallen from 0.65 in 2010 to about 0.5 in 2018.
President Assad estimated that post-war reconstruction costs, once the war ends, would be $400 billion (8x the estimated annual GDP of Syria in 2018)